The Church and the Stockdale Paradox

In his classic book, Good to Great, Jim Collins recalls a conversation he had with Admiral Jim Stockdale, the highest ranking US military officer in the “Hanoi Hilton” prisoner-of-war camp during the Vietnam War. During his eight years in captivity, Stockdale was repeated tortured and beaten. He once even beat himself with a stool, so his captors could not display him as a “well-treated prisoner.” After his release he was awarded the Congressional Medal of Honor.

During the conversation, Collins asked him, “How did you make it out?” Stockdale replied, “I never lost faith in the end of the story….I never doubted not only that I would get out, but that I would prevail in the end and turn the experience into the defining event of my life, which in retrospect, I would not trade….”

Stockdale had articulated what Collins called “The Stockdale Paradox.” In wrestling with life’s challenges the “Stockdale Paradox” states you must retain faith that you will prevail in the end and you must also confront the brutal facts of your current reality, whatever they might be.

Collins recalls walking silently with the admiral around the beautiful Stanford campus for a few minutes. Then Collins asked him, “Who didn’t make it out?” And Stockdale replied, “Oh, that’s the optimists.” According to Stockdale the optimist said, “We’ll be home by Christmas!” Then Christmas would come and the optimist said “we’ll be home by Easter.” Easter would come and go. And finally they would say Thanksgiving….and eventually they would die of a broken heart.

Leaders embrace and live out the “Stockdale Paradox.” They combine the unconquerable faith of prevailing no matter how difficult things seem while also being relentlessly disciplined at confronting the brutal facts of their current reality. They reject triumphalism, optimism and sentimentality.

The North American church has much to learn from the "Stockdale Paradox.” The first aspect of the church's “Stockdale Paradox” is a theological affirmation: God’s church will triumph with Him. I believe that to be true. I’ll go to my grave believing it to be so. But the second half is what we need help dealing with: facing the brutal facts. And within the SBC there are just a few brutal facts we must face honestly:

• 80-85% of our churches have either plateaued or declined in growth & members.
• We have millions on our church rolls, some of whom FedEx couldn’t even track down.
• Only 3-4% of our churches are truly effective evangelistically.
• Mission giving and sending has not kept up with previous generations.
• Many of our churches have turned inward and are perceived as ‘cranky’ to their own communities.

A couple of years ago I heard one of my denominational leaders publicly yearn for a return to the 1950’s except without racism or sexism. How tragic I thought. The 1950’s are gone for good. Families aren’t like the Cleavers anymore. Yet in too many churches our programs and ministries would make you think otherwise. We curse the darkness and yearn for the good old days. Want to know what our culture will look like in 15-20 years? Look at Europe, then pray, take a deep breath and assess your own reality. Pastor, church leader, what is it that’s holding your church back? Assess. Get real. And go to God for help.